Latest CAPA India Insights

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Key Trends in Indian Aviation in FY2022: Impact of Second Wave

May 2021: The 2nd COVID wave could precipitate a collapse of the sector, without intervention. The extent of the challenge is reflected in airline under-recovery of almost USD70 per pax.

Designing a Sustainable Roadmap for the Revival of Indian Aviation

May 2020: CAPA India has prepared a discussion guide to rethink and redesign India’s aviation industry for a more sustainable future post-COVID. This presentation provides an overview of the critical underlying challenges and poses key questions that need to be addressed in order to be able to develop a roadmap to achieve that vision.

Indian aviation faces massive disruption on the road out of COVID

May 2020: Recovery will not be easy and will require critical strategic decisions to be taken by the industry and government. Indian aviation is expected to confront a series of challenges in the coming weeks and months, each of which could have a serious structural impact. The risks and implications are arguably under-estimated at a policy level.

COVID-19 & the State of the Indian Aviation Industry – Update 3

April 2020: The Indian aviation sector is likely to shrink significantly, even if some of the vulnerable airlines manage to survive. CAPA India estimates that there could be 200-250 surplus aircraft for the next 6-12 months. In a series of blog posts, CAPA India will provide regular updates on the outlook for the sector.

Projecting the potential financial impact of COVID-19 on Indian Aviation

March 2020: COVID-19 is wreaking unprecedented disruption on aviation around the world. In India, where the industry was already vulnerable even before the advent of COVID-19, the severity of the impact could possibly lead to a structural reset of the airline sector, with a strategic shift in terms of growth, fleet expansion, competitive dynamics, pricing, costs and business models.

The Impact of COVID-19 on Indian Aviation

March 2020: A gathering series of travel restrictions imposed by governments around the world due to COVID-19 is reducing air traffic to a trickle on most routes. This has resulted in airlines taking extraordinary and hitherto unimaginable decisions with respect to their operations. In a series of blog posts, CAPA India will provide regular updates on the outlook for the sector.

CAPA PATA Tourism Power House presentation

December 2019: The  presentation at the PATA Tourism Power House Summit in Delhi is CAPA’s strategic review on what it will take for India to achieve 20 million annual foreign tourist arrivals.

CAPA India Aviation Outlook FY2020: Q2 Update

December 2019: FY2020 should have been a good year for the industry, and indeed it started off well. But after two quarters the situation appears to be quite the opposite. This quarterly update examines not only developments in Q2, but also includes a broader strategic review of macro issues in the sector which have a bearing on outcomes.

CAPA India Aviation Outlook FY2020: Q1 Update

June 2019: CAPA released its Indian Aviation Outlook for FY2020 in February 2019. Since the Outlook was initially released, the market experienced a significant development with the suspension of operations by Jet Airways, which was the largest international and the second largest carrier in India. This will have notable implications for traffic growth, fleet expansion, competitive dynamics and financial performance, as presented in this quarterly market update.

Regional Aviation in India and the Status of the Regional Connectivity Scheme

February 2019: The vast majority of India’s population resides outside of the metros, but connectivity to smaller towns and cities remains under-developed. This report highlights the key features of regional airline operations in India and includes an overview of the mechanics of the Regional Connectivity Scheme.

CAPA India Pilot & Manpower Forecasts

February 2019: Over the next 10 years, the rapid growth of India’s aviation sector will drive demand for 250,000 additional staff across the industry, from pilots to cabin crew, engineers, management, commercial, financial and operational specialists, ground handlers, air traffic controllers etc. This presentation includes CAPA’s manpower forecasts and an overview of the key strategic issues facing the industry, such as the availability of education and training infrastructure, labour productivity, competition from other markets and the absence of a long term plan for skills development.

CAPA India 20-year Market & Fleet Forecast

February 2019: India is currently the fastest growing major aviation market in the world. And optimism about future expansion is reflected in the fact that amongst leading markets, India has the highest ratio of aircraft on order to aircraft in-service. This presentation highlights CAPA’s 20-year projections for domestic and international air traffic and fleet size in India.

Indian Aviation: A USD250 billion Investment Opportunity

February 2019: Investments in the Indian aviation sector, and their corresponding economic impact, are expected to outperform GDP growth over the next 20 years, and could represent a USD250 billion opportunity by FY2040. In this presentation, CAPA summarises historic and projected investment flows by sector.

Prospects for an Indian Aircraft Leasing Sector

September 2018: India’s airlines have an order book of more than 1000 aircraft, valued at over USD50 billion, By 2050, the country’s commercial fleet is expected to exceed 5000 aircraft. An industry of this scale will require an increasingly capable and sophisticated indigenous aviation eco-system, spanning aircraft maintenance, aerospace manufacturing and aircraft leasing activities amongst others, similar to the path that China has pursued. In anticipation of the long-term requirements of the country’s aviation industry, the Government of India is exploring measures to encourage the establishment of aircraft leasing operations domiciled in India. In this report, CAPA outlines its perspective on the prospects for this initiative.

CAPA India Inbound Tourism Report 2018: Executive Summary

September 2018: This report provides in-depth analysis of the size and structure of inbound tourism flows, with a specific focus on pure leisure travel. The study involved extensive data analysis, supported by primary research amongst leading inbound tour operators, to highlight key trends with respect to source markets, growth rates and competing destinations, as well as to identify constraints to growth. The destination marketing of India was benchmarked against global best practice, and priority source markets for the allocation of resources for promotion and product development were identified using CAPA’s proprietary model. Recommendations are presented to enable India to achieve its inbound tourism potential. The report will be released 7 September 2018.

CAPA India Aircraft Fleet & Finance Report: Part 1, Executive Summary

July 2018: This report provides a detailed, independent assessment of the state of aircraft financing in India. It will be released in several parts and will include: a comprehensive overview of incumbent airline operators with a focus on their fleet and network strategies, and financial performance; an evaluation of aircraft orders and the financing models that will be implemented, including the prospects for sale-and-leaseback transactions; a review of global trends with respect to capital markets, bank credit and the changing lessor landscape, and their potential impact on Indian carriers; and an assessment of specific Indian regulatory and taxation issues.

CAPA-Expedia India Outbound Travel Report

January 2018: CAPA and Expedia jointly developed this report to better define and understand the size, profile and drivers of the India outbound leisure travel market. It draws on new industry and consumer research. The report identifies key steps to unlocking demand for travel with respect to air connectivity, delivering value, simplifying visa requirements and investing in enhanced customer segmentation and product development. CAPA and Expedia identify the key growth markets, consider potential new leisure routes for low cost carriers and forecast tourist numbers in 2025 to the leading destinations.

Key Success Factors for Air India’s Privatisation

October 2017: Air India’s privatisation has the potential to be one of the most significant developments in the recent history of Indian aviation. The government’s exit from being a major airline operator will positively impact industry commercials and policy settings. But it will be a complex and challenging transaction. In this briefing note published in October 2017, CAPA outlined key success factors for the privatisation process.

CAPA Analytics: How Aviation has become a Rust Belt Industry while sitting on a Goldmine of Unused Data

Originally published in Airline Leader, September 2012: In this CAPA report, we highlight how airlines are sitting on a vast goldmine of largely unused data. Now is the time for them to leverage this valuable resource through data science and analytics to increase customer engagement through predictive modelling; enhance loyalty; optimise marketing campaigns; stimulate ancillary revenue; and sell retail merchandise to an affluent and captive audience, before intermediary companies intervene and grab these riches.

Key Highlights of the CAPA India Aviation Outlook 2019/20

February 2019: The annual CAPA India Aviation Outlook Report has become established as the indispensable guide for companies with exposure to Indian aviation, delivering accurate, timely and in-depth analysis and data. In this summary presentation, we present the key highlights of our 2019/20 outlook covering domestic and international capacity and traffic, fleet orders, policy and regulation, and key strategic trends.

CAPA India Mid – Year Aviation Outlook FY 2019

September 2018: When CAPA India presented its annual outlook for FY2019 back in Jan-2018, the mood in the industry was relatively upbeat. Most airlines were looking forward to a profitable FY2019, with traffic expected to continue its double-digit growth rates on the back of a strong economy. But in a little over six months, sentiment has shifted abruptly in response to an increasingly challenging environment, precipitated by the increase in oil prices, currency depreciation and excess capacity. In this mid-year update CAPA presents an independent assessment of the state of the Indian aviation market, based on our research and understanding of the key strategic and economic issues confronting the sector, developed from our 24×7 monitoring of the industry.

CAPA Report: Resetting India’s Airport Planning & Execution Framework

June 2018: India will require a massive increase in airport capacity over the coming years and decades, But there is currently no entity with point-guard responsibility for strategic planning for the Indian airport system. Meanwhile, the Airports Authority of India (AAI) is over-burdened with multiple responsibilities. In this presentation, CAPA India outlines our proposal for a restructuring of the AAI’s governance and operational framework, under an independent new agency, the Airports Commission of India, responsible for developing a strategic vision, national master planning and productivity.

CAPA India Airport Infrastructure Status Check

January 2018: India’s system-wide airport capacity has already crossed 80% utilisation and with traffic growing at double-digits, infrastructure constraints are becoming apparent, In this presentation, CAPA reviews the status of current airport capacity, considers scenario timelines for saturation, projects the investment required to keep pace with demand and outlines a new airport development framework.